Have you visited 270towin.com? You can view real-time update of the ever-shifting electoral vote projections. Every conceivable combination of outcomes necessary for either Obama or McCain to win can be scrutinized on this site. And with a bit of navigating, you can also access up-to-date results from a number of pollsters.
I slid from complacency to craven abjectness some weeks ago when the chart that projected Obama’s 84% likelihood of victory no longer graced the home page. Instead, interactive simulations held center stage, displaying a cascading series of possibilities in which McCain, apparently, won more often than not. Every time a viewer clicked the link, a new, equally dire set of red flashes spilled into the swing states, spelling doom to (IMHO) reason and hope.
Revisiting the site yesterday, I was pleased to see the chart restored to the home page, with Obama now holding a 99% possibility of winning! But what precisely does this mean? By clicking on each swing state, and referring to the table that appears below, we view its voting history. I see unsettling amount of GOP votes in a great many of them. (Be forewarned that the first time you click on a swing state, it turns red. Click again, and it turns blue. So the initial color shift signifies nothing.)
Having fallen on my aspiration after last month’s visit to the site, I no longer lean on the percentages. We’ve seen how grandstanding, spurious claims and shifts of the public tide of opinion (red tide?) can erode support for Obama. But I’ll warm myself in the autumn sun between the clouds, and hope for brighter days come November.